As the tragedy of Hurricane Katrina continues to mount, the
debate over the role of global warming has grown apace. Climate
scientists have not established any link between global warming
and the frequency of storms, but a persuasive body of evidence
indicates that warming is having a considerable impact on the
intensity of hurricanes, adding greatly to their destructive
force.
Indeed, a study just published in the journal Nature reports
that the power--and hence the destructive force--of hurricanes
in the Atlantic Ocean has more than doubled in the past 30
years, with an unusually strong spike since 1995. "The large
upswing is unprecedented and probably reflects the effect of
global warming," said MIT climate scientist Kerry Emmanuel, who
conducted the study.
Emmanuel's findings echo a 2004 study conducted by NOAA
(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association) of the U.S.
Department of Commerce. NOAA found that "greenhouse-gas induced
warming may lead to a gradually increasing risk in the
occurrence of highly destructive category-5 storms." It added
that, "The strongest hurricanes in the present climate may be
upstaged by even more intense hurricanes over the next century
as the earth's climate is warmed by increasing levels of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere." NOAA has also reported that
hurricane activity in the Atlantic has been higher than normal
for 9 of the past 11 years, and that this year could see as many
as 11 hurricanes there, in contrast to the typical six. [1]
The growing consensus on a link between warmer oceans and
stronger hurricanes has led to renewed criticism of the Bush
administration's refusal to take action to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions. President Bush stated in June, 2001 that "My
administration's climate policy will be science based."
But one year later Mr. Bush ridiculed a new study by his own EPA
as "a report put out by the bureaucracy," and removed it from a
submission to the United Nations. When a 2003 EPA report stated
that "Climate change has global consequences for human health
and the environment," the White House removed the sentence.
This week the chief of the White House Office of Science and
Technology Policy, Dr. John Marburger, told Greenwire that there
is no need for the administration to change its policies on
global warming. [2]
In contrast, Sir David King, chief science advisor for the
British government, said flatly two weeks ago that "The
increased intensity of hurricanes is associated with global
warming. We have known since 1987 the intensity of hurricanes is
related to surface sea temperature..."
Likewise, five leading climate scientists writing on the blog
RealClimate.org noted last week that "The available scientific
evidence indicates that it is likely that global warming will
make--and possibly is making--those hurricanes that form more
destructive than they otherwise would have been."
Boding ill for the coastlines of the U.S. and many other parts
of the world, Princeton University geosciences professor Michael
Oppenheimer said in an Environmental Media Services
teleconference this week that there is a consensus among
scientists that "greenhouse gases bear most of the
responsibility" for the current warming of the earth, and that
scientists expect to see a sea level rise of between six inches
and three feet over this century.
Most upsetting in the eyes of many experts is the recent energy
bill passed by Congress and signed by the president. It includes
some $13.1 billion in tax breaks for greenhouse gas emitting
industries, including $4 billion for an oil industry that is
already enjoying multi-billion dollar profits. [3]
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SOURCES:
[1] "Global warming and hurricanes," Geophysical Fluid Dynamic
Laboratory.
[2] "U.S. policies sufficient to address hurricane threats,
Bush's science adviser says," Greenwire, Sept. 12, 2005.
[3] US PIRG press release, Aug. 8, 2005.